Playoff Preview and Predictions Season 31

10 07 2014

Playoff Preview and Predictions from topoftheworld (any weird formatting is due to some copy and pasting issues)

I compared the rosters and likely lineups of each playoff team and then compared them to each other within their league. AL was not compared to NL. Using a SS I have used in the following results. To show what they know, My SS doesn’t like Montreal at all and there are up 2-0. Anyway, AL first:

O D
Little Rock 106% 105% 211%
Monterrey 105% 102% 207%
Pittsburg 102% 102% 203%
Salem 100% 103% 203%
Fargo 88% 101% 189%
Montreal 100% 87% 187%

As you can see Little Rock is the favorite and is well above average in talent on both their ability to score runs and prevent them. In fact, first in both categories. Throw in their first round bye and my money is on them. Tommy was a little down on his team and the SS bares that out as he is only fractionally in the top half of AL playoff teams. I cannot see anyone farther down the list than Salem making the WS.

My prediction: Pits over Mon (I would have gone MTY if he wasn’t down 2-0, but either way I’d have Pit), Little Rock over Salem, Little Rock over Pits

Now the NL:
O D
Boise 113% 98% 211%
St. Louis 104% 103% 206%
Houston 104% 99% 204%
San Francisco 98% 105% 203%
Scranton 100% 96% 196%
Los Angeles 81% 99% 180%

I wanted to do this to see if I had a shot and I was very pleased with the results. Though Boise gives a few more runs than average their offense is so much better than their competition it really ought to be enough despite the injury to Santos (36 HR’s and 111 RBI’s). That said St. Louis, Houston, and San Francisco should be counted as contenders. SF’s pitching has the chance to get hot that could be it. Scranton did about as well as I thought, but I had to check twice to see if I had screwed up somewhere with LA. Defense is hard to quantify everywhere and my SS is no different. They led the NL in every conceivable defensive category and they made the WS last season, so one must group them in with St. Louis, Houston, and SF.

My prediction: Boise over St. Louis, SF over LA, Boise over SF

WS: Little Rock over Boise in 6.





Season 31 Hall of Fame Voting Results

13 06 2014

Season 31 Hall of Fame Voting Results (formatting isn’t ideal but this at least let’s us save the voting results for posterity – Kohlmeier, Calles and Ponson got in):

Player Frn Pos Votes

Cleatus Kohlmeier MTY P 20
Harry Calles MON C 19
Mike Ponson BUF LF 18
Quentin Rivera MTY P 14
Ivan Torcato SAL P 13
Francisco Blanco DOV RF 10
Miguel Matos MTY RF 7
Eric Marquis MTY LF 6
Morrie Keller SAL P 5
Donn Warden ATL P 3
Sammy Bennett BUF P 3
Slim Betemit SF RF 2
Harold Cannon PAW RF 2
Gus Davenport BOI DH 2
Wilfredo Gonzales SAL LF 1
Alex Villano LA P 1
Brad Leach NOR P 1
Tony Hernandez DUR LF 1
Jeff Witt BOS 3B 1
Henry Cogan SEA P 1
Pep Lee FAR P 1





Season 31 Hall of Fame Voter’s Guide

3 05 2014

This Hall of Fame voter’s guide is meant to help sort and compare the most worthy Hall of Fame candidates and then to offer recommendations, acknowledging that everyone prioritizes different factors and none of the advanced metrics nor fielding stats are listed here, feel free to disagree, this is meant to help sort and compare players more easily as well as inform newer owners.

Top Tier Hitting Candidates:

C Harry Calles – 2201 hits, 573 HR, 10 time AS, 1 MVP
RF Miguel Matos – 2706 Hits, 565 HR, 9 AS
LF Mike Ponson – 3064 Hits, 564 HR, 6 AS
RF Harold Cannon – 2755 HR, 388HR, 596SB, 6 AS
RF Francisco Blanco – 2318 hits, 617 HR, 333 SB, 5AS

Second Tier Hitters (basically guys with lots of homers but not as many hits/awards as the top tier):

DH Gus Davenport – 2098 hits, 558 HR, 4 AS, 2MVP
LF Eric Marquis – 2386 hits, 648 HR, 4AS
1b Kelly Payne – 2304 hits, 591 HR, 5AS
Stewart, Wakefield and Witt also have over 500 homers.

Hitting Summary – Calles is really special when seen as a C, Ponson has 3000 hits and 500 HRs, Matos/Cannon/Blanco are all strong but in my opinion don’t quite compare to Calles and Ponson

Top Tier Starting Pitchers:

Cleatus Kohlmeier – 252 wins, 2881, Ks, 3.52 ERA, 10AS, 2 CY
Pep Lee – 234 wins, 2616 Ks, 3.53 ERA, 8AS, 1 CY
Dave Newhan – 216 wins, 2218 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 8AS
Quentin Rivera – 402 wins, 1843 Ks, 3.57 ERA, 8AS, 5 CY
Ivan Torcato – 252 wins, 2350 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 12 AS, 1 CY
Donn Warden – 243 wins, 2775 Ks, 3.19 ERA, 8AS, 2 CY
Gandarilla, Pascual, and Sierra all fall short in one or more areas as compared to the above

Top Tier Closers:

Sammy Bennett – 519 saves, 2.94 ERA, 8AS
Morrie Keller – 460 saves, 2.82 ERA, 7AS, 1 CY
Brad Leach – 553 saves, 3.01 ERA, 6AS, 1CY
Alex Villano – 529 saves, 2.90 ERA, 8AS
Cogan has a lot of saves but not near the awards of the above guys

Pitching Summary – Kohlmeier has the best combination of stats and awards, he’s very similar to Torcato but has 500 more Ks. Rivera is indeed glitchy in getting over 400 wins as a tandem type pitcher, but this is what-if sports, and the wins are complimented by 8 AS and 5CY. To me the 4 top relievers are all just too similar to really recommend one over the others – Keller is strong but is 4th out of the 4 in save total which holds him back to me even with a slightly better ERA than the others.

My official voting recommendations:

Hitters – Calles because he was special for a Catcher in stats and awards, Ponson because his stats/awards combo is the best of the rest to me

Pitchers – Kohlmeier and Torcato stand out and Rivera’s stat/awards combo is really amazing, even if glitchy.

I could see replacing Torcato with the RP of your choosing but I just don’t think any of the RPs will get enough votes to get in.

Bottom Line – I think Kohlmeier and Rivera really have to get in, Calles should get in – would be disappointing if Ponson doesn’t but he hasn’t mustered the votes the past few seasons.

 

 

 





League Owner Longevity Snapshot

25 04 2014

I thought it might be informative to do a snapshot of how long each owner has been with their current team, the current season is #31. I know there are a couple owners here who have actually coached more than one team in this world at different times, but this list is just how long the current owner has been with their current franchise.

As you’ll see below – the NL East has the most longevity while the NL North and AL South are the overall newest. 7 owners have been with the same team all 31 seasons, 6 in the NL, 1 in the AL. Two owners joined in season 2/3 and have been here since.

Team Name – owner name, first season in Shtickless

NL North:
Portland – thewheaties 30-
Chicago – PhilBar 26-
Boise – topoftheworl 28-
Buffalo – LutherMax 31-

NL East:
Norfolk – bret2775 31-
Dover – tylermathias 1-
Scranton – Alcheez 1-
New York – dherz_263 1-

NL South:
St Louis – traxman 19-
Atlanta – genghisxcon 28-
Houston dbird85 30-
Texas vandydave 1-

NL West
San Diego – tisi29 1-
San Francisco – AceCards 1-
Seattle – zorn2largent 31-
Los Angeles – rourke 21-

AL North
Columbus – gregor199 31-
Fargo – taphj 27-
Milwaukee – mrfortune3 18-
Montreal – larry_jew 1- (two different names, same owner)

AL East
Pittsburgh – tommy_cian 21-
Cleveland – tdowdy3 29- (also 1-7)
Boston – dudemac 31-
Pawtucket – schnipper 27-

AL South
Charlotte – ksmack 31-
Durham – dcinto 29-
Monterrey – stonewalter 31-
Little Rock – yanks21 28-

AL West
Vancouver – winepimp 16-
Wichita – Fregoe 2-
Salem – moy23 3-
Colorado – suessquatch 31-





Season 31 Available Team Reviews

20 04 2014

Season 31 Available Team Write-ups – also can be found in the Hardball Classified Forums with links to each team:

AL West – 1st pick in the draft is the biggest selling point for this team – it has been in rebuilding mode for a handful of years now, but because of that has accumulated very high draft picks the last couple years such as SS Cervantes and CF Gandarilla.

At the ML level SP Jesus Santiago is ready to either be the staff ace or traded for prospects, SP Ogea and Romo are both in their 20s and should be staff fixtures for years to come as well.

As far as ML hitting goes OF Willie James is only 23 and will be a stud at the plate for years to come.

Solid ML talent, great prospects from the draft plus the first pick in this season’s draft make this AL West franchise a great pick-up.

 

AL East – 11th pick – this team had a poor season 30 but prior to that won 83, 93, 81, and 86 games the past 4 season – so this team has been well cared for.

At the ML level SPs Smith, Martin, Hodges and Romanski are all clearly rotation-worthy, while RP Falk is a stud. Lawrence Smith has 80+ splits as well as a SP.

At the ML level hitting – Stretch Martin is a very strong OF who is only 27, OF Alex Saenz is strong as well. Sam Jones is a great 2b/CF type who is only 26 as well.

In AAA Morton and Descalso are SP prospects who should call-ups soon and Macias is a strong defense hitter who should get called up also.

 

AL North – 12th pick – this team was well maintained with the same owner seasons 16-30. It had 92 and 90 wins in seasons 27 and 28.

At the ML level DH Alexander Service is an enormous bat an entire lineup can be built around. Bruce Wallace is a 2b/OF type who should bat middle of the order.

At the ML level there is no current staff ace but about 5 guys who should all compete for rotation spots including Saenz, Grimsley, Butler, Blackmon and Washington.

At AAA Chad Hayes could be called up today and hit 40+ homers while playing several positions. Brent Dixon is a great 1b/DH in AAA. Max Nieves is a 23y/o RP who is ready for the bigs.

At AA Alexei Mieses could bat middle of the order right now and RP Cayonnes projects strong.

In High A SP Manzanillo is already rated 75 at 21 y/o.

 

NL West 14th pick -

At the ML – William Bukvich is 24 y/o, rated 82 and only getting better – staff ace to build around for years to come. SP Lee is only 26 and SP Byrne is 27. RP Sojo is only 22 and already rated 77. Numerous other young RPs as well who should stay in the bigs for years. This team is ready to pitch now.

At the ML level hitting – Tim Boucher is a 1b/dh who is 80+ in all the 4 major categories, true stud hitter. 27 y/o Eddie Fiorentino is rated 89 and can play a number of positions with a strong bat. Esteban Park is a 22 y/o OF already rated 77.

I’m not even going to look at the minors, I can’t believe how good and strong this team is at the ML level – Id almost trade this team for my team how well it is young and set-up to win.

 

NL North 19th pick – from seasons 9 through 27 this team had a winning record – very strong history.

At the ML level – SP Damion Cheng has 90+ L/R splits. SP Dicky Bong is 27 y/o and a SP2 type. Malone is worthy of the SP3. This team basically is ready to pitch when you add in SP Urbina. Two strong RPs as well in Soriano and Dawkins. RP Hujimoto (for some reason at High A) is an elite RP, best of the bunch.

At the ML level – Napoleon Jones is a 30 y/o 1b/DH who can hit for power and average to build a lineup around and Josh Jacquez can play 1b/DH spot that Jones doesn’t. Nicholas Johnson is a 3b/OF with 70+ splits and Wesley Blair is a great bat in RF. Willis Brandt is a C who should hit 45+ homers.

Basically this team is ready to pitch and hit – likely will have a big salary but will also win now.





Season 28 Hall of Fame Voter’s Guide

1 07 2013

This voter’s guide is just going to use the basic stats/awards on the main screen of the player cards – I understand that a lot more advanced metrics can/should be used, but this is for ease of comparison. The potential nominees will be broken down into three sections, I’m sure there will be disagreements (and some value different metrics more than others, such as defense), that’s why we vote! (I’ve chosen to not list positions here but break-up into hitters and pitchers). From season to season players may move tiers based upon relative competition. Overall comments and predictions at the bottom.

First Tier (These are not absolute-musts this season compared to last but based upon this class of nominees and last year’s vote really seem to deserve to get in):

Hitters:
Mike Ponson – 3064 hits, 547 HR, 323 SB – 6AS (12 votes last year)
Steve Thomas – .307 avg, 2776 hits, 636 HR – 6AS, 2 MVP (12 votes last year)

Pitchers:

None

Second Tier (definitely should be considered and get a respectable number of votes):

Hitters:

Gus Davenport – 558 HR, 4AS, 2MVP
Miguel Matos – 2706 hits, 565 HR – 9AS (5 votes last year)
Chris Offerman – 2773 hits, 524 HR – 7AS
Dan Johnson – 490 HR, 305 SB – 7AS, 1 MVP, 4 GG
Glen Judd – 564 HR – 5AS (catcher) (6 votes last year)
Eric Marquis – 648HR, 4AS

Pitchers:

Sammy Bennett – 2.94 ERA, 519 SV – 8AS (9 votes last year)
Mark Chase – 3.26 ERA, 473 SV – 10AS
Pep Lee – 3.53 ERA, 234 wins, 2616 SO, 8AS 1 CY
Sammy Malone – 3.31 ERA, 501 SV – 9AS (5 votes last year)
Dave Newhan – 3.55 ERA, 216 wins, 2218 SO – 8AS
Alex Villano – 2.90 ERA, 529 SV – 8AS
Morrie Keller – 2.82 ERA, 460 SV – 7AS (6 votes last year)

Third Tier (likely will get a couple votes but never enough momentum to get anywhere close):

Hitters:

Harold Cannon – 2755 hits, 388 HR, 596 SB – 6 AS
Steve Dewitt – .304 avg, 530 HR – 3AS, 2MVP
Tony Hernandez – 2607 hits, 604 SB – 7AS, 2 GG
Kelly Payne – 2304 hits, 591 HR – 5AS
Ronnie Stewart – 2232 hits, 589 HR – 2AS
Jeff Witt – 602 HR

Pitchers:

Bernie Gandarilla – 3.23 ERA, 226 wins, 2393 Ks, 5 AS 1 CY
Victor Pascual – 3.68ERA, 204 wins, 2794 Ks, 1 AS
Torey Sierra – 3.99 ERA, 227 wins, 2480 Ks, 2 AS

None

Overall Comments – This group is really again this season dominated by power hitters and relievers, really a continued surprisingly weak crop of starting pitchers. 500 HR alone just doesn’t make a player standout in this group, it will likely take a combination of big homers and 3000 (or close) hits plus a pile of postseason awards to get in amongst this group.

Prediction – Ponson and/or Thomas get a competitive number of votes, all these good relievers (Bennett, Chase, Keller, Malone, Villano) again steal votes from one another keeping any from getting in, a couple SPs (Gandarilla, Lee, Newhan) get a handful of votes apiece. Odds are maybe only one candidate (or none) between Ponson/Thomas make it in this season which lacks any clear first-ballot HOFers in my opinion.





Season 27 Diamonds in the Rough

30 04 2013

The Season 27 Diamonds in the Rough for Shtickless featured a number of strong relief pitchers and a few defensive specialists but not much else.

Will Definitely Make the Big Leagues if they get anywhere close to their projected ratings:

RP Douglas Jay – Texas – great control with 80+ splits, 2 strong pitches
RP Rafael Park – St Louis – nice righty split with good P1
RP Charlie Nixon – Texas – very solid all the way across with a high 90s lefty split
RP – Curtis Larkin – Salem – likely a setup B type

Should make the bigs if they reach their projecteds:

SP – Nolan Corino – St Louis – a LR or late rotation SP
RP – Chili Fitzgerald – Salem – setup B

The hitters were very weak but these guys might make the big leagues someday:

Defensive specialist Cs, all definitely have below average bats – Mike Maroth Scottsdale, BJ Landrum New York Bowie Mafia, Micah White Houston, Shelley Ferguson Las Vegas, Laynce Blasingame – Chicago

Only really decent bat – 1b Tike Easterly Pawtucket – could someday DH or play 1b

Interesting fielder/hitters – SS (?) Max Vega of Toledo and Derek Goodwin of San Antonio – both have very nice defensive ratings with the exception of arm strength which might keep them from everyday jobs

2b/CF – Julio Rosado of Detroit and Shane Morton of San Diego both have very nice glove and range but not much else

There’s about 5-10 other guys who improved a bunch on defense but who overall likely won’t reach their projecteds or don’t have the bats to ever make it to the ML

Overall Texas, St Louis and Salem seemed to get the biggest boost from DITR.








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